Company Insights, Flavor Insights
Dramatic headlines aside, chocoholics across the world are refusing to give up beloved chocolate flavored products. However, if the global cocoa supply continues to drop at the rate that it has been since January, chocolate may become a rare commodity in the Food & Beverage Industry as prices skyrocket. We’re giving you the latest insights on the cocoa market so you can make the best decisions regarding your chocolate flavored products in the months to come.
Origin of the Issue
Most of the world’s supply of cocoa beans comes from West Africa, with a moderate quantity also sourced from Brazil, Ecuador, and Indonesia. In fact, approximately two-thirds of the world’s cocoa production occurs in the West African nations of Ghana and Ivory Coast. Since the beginning of the year, this region has experienced disruptive weather patterns amplified by climate change and rising freight costs. A CNBC article reports that the El Nino weather phenomenon observed in West Africa this year may result in drought-like conditions that may permanently affect the yield of cocoa beans able to be produced there1.
Cocoa harvests occur only twice per year, with the “main harvest” occurring from October to March. Since it rained more than usual in Western Africa for the last few months of 2023, several plant pathogens- such as black pod disease & swollen shoot virus- were able to spread between farms more easily. Additionally, a powerful cyclone ravaged Brazil right before harvest season last year. These factors alone already threatened the overall cocoa output this year and further exasperated the global cocoa supply crisis we are currently witnessing.
Additional root causes of the cocoa crisis include the global fertilizer shortage and economic paranoia that stems from the 2022 war in Ukraine. Because cocoa is a crop that requires a significant amount of fertilizer to grow commercially, the reduced amount of fertilizer being exported greatly impacted the overall yield of existing cocoa trees before unexpected weather had an impact. Europe is also the world’s leading importer of cocoa beans. When analysts started to predict that the cost of oil, coal, and gas would spike due to the Russian invasion, chocolate makers began placing fewer orders for cocoa out of financial fear4. As soon as fear subsided, there was a boom in demand for cocoa again, but with a more limited supply than ever before.
How to Navigate the Changing Cocoa Market
As a result of the changing weather patterns and shipping challenges, the price of cocoa has spiked by more than $2,000 per metric ton since January, reaching a record high of over $7,000 according to data released by Bloomberg on March 12 and as shown in the figure below5. Since cacao trees take years to mature enough to produce cocoa beans, these high prices aren’t expected to return to baseline anytime soon. Paul Davis, President of the European Cocoa Association, estimates that it may be another 1.5 to 3 years before chocolate producers can relax again.
Source: McKeany-Flavell
While passing the cost on to consumers is one option to navigate the ominous climate of the cocoa market, it is important to consider other strategies to keep your chocolate flavored food or beverage product in line with competitors.
- Diversification: Companies should consider diversifying their sources of cocoa to different regions of the world to mitigate the risk of supply disruptions from unfavorable weather pattern changes.
- Sustainability initiatives: Engage in cocoa farmers that have sustainability initiatives in place to ensure that the long-term viability of cocoa crops is being supported.
- Market Analysis: Staying up to date on cocoa market reports every month can help companies plan accordingly and re-evaluate where costs could be reduced in other ingredients.
- Innovation: Supplement 100% real cocoa with a chocolate flavor or extract to enhance the rich, decadent profile of your chocolate product while using less of the actual commodity.
We proudly use fair-trade, organic cocoa beans to create our robust, perfectly sweet and nutty chocolate flavors and extracts. Reach out to us today for more information on our premium chocolate flavors and how Jogue can help you cut soaring cocoa costs while retaining flavor.
Resources:
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/cocoa-prices-surge-to-all-time-highs-as-bad-weather-hurts-west-africa-crop-yield.html
2. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/chocolate-west-africa-cocoa-beans-supply-crunch-prices-suppliers-commodities-2024-2
3. McKeany-Flavell. “Cocoa and Chocolate Monthly Update”. 2024, Feb.
4. https://time.com/6291600/cocoa-chocolate-high-price-russia/
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-12/cocoa-rises-above-7-000-a-ton-for-first-time-in-new-york
Flavor Insights
The fascination with abstract, futuristic concepts has officially penetrated the Food & Beverage Industry! Flavors such as “Unicorn”, “Mermaid”, “Galaxy”, and “Starlight” were all fan favorite flavors launched in 2023, and the trend is expected to continue. Between the Great Northern Solar Eclipse happening on April 8 and the first crewed moon mission planned for later this summer, space-themed flavors are projected to be more popular than ever before this Spring!
Additionally, new innovations in the food & beverage space (edible glitter, bold colors, unusual textures, eye-catching layers, etc.) are likely to continue to capture the attention of children in 2024. Starbucks, Little Debbie’s, and Snack Pack have all witnessed success from launching unicorn flavored frappuccinos, snack cakes and layered puddings, respectively. Teens and adults have even caught the unicorn curiosity bug: Bang Energy launched a “Rainbow Unicorn” flavored energy drink that went viral on social media.
When it comes to the world of fantasy flavors, the options are endless! While standing out among the landscape of increasingly unique flavors may seem overwhelming, our team of flavor experts have simplified the fantasy flavor creation process into 3 simple steps.
Step 1: Research Your Customer Base
Although this may seem like the obvious first step, it’s arguably the most important. For example, companies marketing towards an adult demographic- such as Coca-Cola and Torani- likely experienced the success they did with fantasy flavors from space-themed products whereas brands like Lucky Charms and Little Debbie’s strategically went for a kid-centric approach that involved flavor concepts such as “unicorn”, “mermaid”, and “fairy dust”.
This first step is admittedly more so about marketing than it is about flavors, but peaking consumer interest to set expectations of a mind-blowing flavor experience is pivotal to a product’s success in the market. Before launching any line extension project, knowing your customer base well enough to cater to their desires will lead to fantasy flavor success!
Step 2: Define a Flavor Profile to Match the Concept
Creativity is key in this step. Fantasy flavors don’t come attached to preconceived expectations. However, it’s fascinating how some of these flavors become defined over time. The “Moose Tracks” ice cream flavor is now almost universally accepted as being a vanilla flavored ice cream with a chocolate fudge swirl riddled with mini peanut butter cups shaped like a moose hoof. Although Moose Tracks is a less abstract concept than several of the fantasy flavors launched within the past year, it still may not be long before we start noticing consistencies among several of the most popular ones hitting the market.
For the creators of Torani’s new Galaxy Syrup, “galaxy” tastes like cotton candy and blue raspberry. Coca-Cola’s Starlight Coke is described as a mix of raspberry and s’mores type flavors. Little Debbie’s Unicorn Snack Cakes are a blend of ultra-sweet cake batter type flavors, strawberry, and lavender. Meanwhile, the unicorn flavor was interpreted very differently in Starbucks’ Unicorn Frappuccino- which is described as having a sweet crème flavored base blended with mango and sour blue raspberry flavored syrups.
Narrowing down the scope of options by defining a flavor blend that not only works well as a seamless combination but also somewhat reflects the overall feeling of the fantasy concept chosen in Step 1 is easier said than done. Inspiration can be taken from anywhere, but a few of our favorite ideas are below:
- “Shooting Star” Sparkling Water – Mango + Lemongrass + Ginger
- “Fairydust” Cupcakes – Strawberry + Dragonfruit + Cotton Candy + Crystallized Wild Honey
- “Black Hole” Pasta Sauce – Black Sesame + Black Garlic + Black Truffle
- “Electric Thunder” Energy Drink – Sour Apple + Yuzu + Apricot
- “Magical Cloud” Ice Cream – Cake Batter + Toffee + Blue Raspberry
Step 3: Refine
As you can imagine, it’s easy to go overboard working with limitless flavor possibilities. There are so many fun flavors that can be thrown together to fit the fantasy concept. If it’s pulled off well, a fantasy flavor is bound to make headlines. However, for every successful “unicorn” food or beverage on the market, there are likely at least five that flop.
Turning to flavor scientists to help masterfully balance competing flavors to result in a novel flavor experience is key to helping you refine a fantasy flavor. If you plan to jump on the trend this month, be sure to choose premium made-to-order flavors that will be sure to set your fantasy flavor project above the rest!
References
- 25 food and drink trends you’ll see everywhere in 2024 – delish. (n.d.). https://www.delish.com/food/g46170754/restaurant-food-drink-trend-predictions-2024/
- Zigoris, J. (2023, November 23). We tried Torani’s 2024 syrup flavor of the year, and we have thoughts. The San Francisco Standard. https://sfstandard.com/2023/11/22/bay-area-torani-syrup-galaxy-flavor-year-2024/
- Quittner, E. (2022, June 29). What does unicorn flavor actually taste like?. Food52. https://food52.com/blog/27502-unicorn-flavor
- Starbucks new color and flavor changing unicorn frappuccino. (n.d.-b). https://stories.starbucks.com/stories/2017/starbucks-unicorn-frappuccino/
Flavor Insights
In addition to a bouquet of Valentines Day roses, people also seem to be looking for botanical flavors in food & beverage options too! Botanical flavors are associated with beautiful, bold colors and a delicate complex flavor that feels truly premium. In fact, floral flavor profiles have grown 91% in consumer interest the past 2 years1. With so much love growing for botanicals, getting a dozen floral flavors in your inventory seems like it might just lead to an engagement…
Botanical Beverages
Thanks to the inherent botanical flavor of most teas, incorporating some of these floral flavors into other beverages is a natural fit. 55% of new beverages launched in the past two years featured a floral flavor to meet consumer demand, and it’s very likely that we will see the botanical flavor trend continue into this Spring2.
In addition to the attractive, sophisticated flavor profile, many consumers also reach for botanical flavors to impart a sense of well-being, calm, and healthfulness. For example, lavender is typically associated with relaxation while elderflower and ginger flavors have an immune-boosting connotation. Either way, adding a botanical flavor to a new product is sure to impart a feel-good effect to consumers! Our botanical flavors and their potential beverage applications could include:
- Strawberry hibiscus flavored iced tea
- Honey lavender flavored cold brew
- Cherry blossom flavored sparkling water
- Rose water coconut flavored coffee creamer
- Elderflower flavored liqueur
Floral Foods
Since many botanical flavors pair well with other sweet ingredients, they lend themselves perfectly to bakery/confectionary applications. Currently, these unique, aromatic flavors are being combined with familiar flavors such as apple, pear, blackberry, etc. to create sophisticated pastries, unexpected chocolates, and exciting candies. In fact, as floral flavors become more mainstream, we might even see them start to shine on their own in the years ahead.
Aside from sweets, we are also seeing botanical flavors start to make an appearance in savory products & condiments, offering an elevated, premium re-invention of classic dishes. From 1,964 U.S. consumers, 21% reported that they would like to see more floral/herbal flavor options on restaurant menus when dining out4. Whether it be lemongrass chicken or rosewater & basil infused olive oil, the possibilities for botanical flavors in the future are endless! With a CAGR of 5.1% between now and 2028, the floral flavors market is likely here to stay3. Botanical flavor application in food products could include:
- Strawberry Basil flavored toaster pastries
- Orange Blossom flavored stir fry sauce
- Jasmine & Grapefruit flavored macaroons
- Rose infused chocolate truffles
- Blueberry Lavender flavored ice cream
Flavor Insights
Spicing Up the New Year
That’s right: spicy flavors are on the rise! According to a recent article from The Food Institute, “Complex Heat” was deemed to be the top trend in Food & Beverage the past year and it’s likely to continue1. Pairing spicy flavors with familiar ones is likely to become especially popular. Consumer interest for flavor combinations such as hot honey, mango habanero, and watermelon chili has been exploding as more people are traveling internationally again & seeking the unexpected2,3.
A Complicated Relationship
The Today Show recently coined the term “swicy” to describe the next hot thing on restaurant menus (no pun intended). That seems to now be carrying over to CPG items on grocery store shelves too! This endearing term refers to the popular complexity of a sweet & spicy flavor pairing that seems to be driven by adventurous millennial and GenZ consumers.
By pairing daring spicy flavors with exotic fruit flavors, companies have the chance to appeal to several people whether they’re looking for global flavors, adventurous flavors, or simply a complex flavor combination that will have them coming back for more. According to Datassential, hot honey alone is expected to soar above nearly all other food & beverage flavors by 2027- leading us to assume that this sweet & spicy relationship is finally becoming official. A few of our favorite “swicy” flavor pairing we can offer for any application include:
- Jalapeño bourbon bacon flavored jam
- Chili pepper chocolate flavored ice cream
- Chipotle maple flavored barbeque sauce
- Habanero raspberry flavored vinegarette
- Guajillo chili flavored simple syrup
Expect more Unexpected
Between the increasing influence of social media and changes in the average consumer’s lifestyle that seems to be promoting an open-minded, adventure-seeking mindset, the Food & Beverage Industry should be preparing for a boom in bold spicy flavors in 2024. With a 138% growth in spicy flavors used in products this past year according to Mintel, it is very likely that this flavor trend is here to stay for the new year4.
Turns out, spicy flavors are being sought out by 71% of consumers5. As a response to this bold demand, spicy flavors are being infused into several unexpected applications. For example, Hellmann’s Spicy Mayonnaise and Ruffles’ Spicy Dill Pickle Flavored Chips were two unexpected viral products that leveraged the new consumer preference for spice. Additionally, unexpected variations of spicy flavors may also be trending this year due to increased global influence. Although slight, the nuanced flavor differences between a habanero, ancho, and guajillo chili might be just enough to peak consumers’ interest in trying something new.
- Ancho chili pineapple flavored gummies
- Scorpion pepper flavored steak sauce
- Red pepper flavored olive oil
- Sriracha flavored alfredo sauce
- Jalapeño cheddar flavored croissants
Company Insights, Flavor Insights, Recipe Highlight
Chai Spice Mini Cupcakes
The warm spices of chai tea paired with a sweet, vanilla-frosted cupcake is the perfect treat to bake for cold winter months. Made with carefully crafted natural flavors and premium pure Madagascar vanilla extract, these mini cupcakes are sure to become a household favorite!
How To Make Chai Spice Mini Cupcakes:
Step 1: Preheat the oven to 325F. Line a mini muffin tin with cupcake liners and set aside. Combine the flour, baking powder, and salt in a small mixing bowl. Sift well and set aside.
Step 2: In a separate mixing bowl, combine the butter and sugar. Beat on a high speed until fluffy in texture, about 2 minutes. Add the egg, olive oil, Jogue Chai Spice Flavor, and Jogue Vanilla Extract to the butter mixture. Beat well for about one minute. While the electric mixer is set to a low speed, carefully add in the flour mixture and half & half until just combined.
Step 3: Fill each cupcake liner with batter until they are about ¾ full. Bake until a toothpick comes out clean, about 15 minutes
Step 4: Let the cupcakes cool completely before frosting. Garnish with a dash of cinnamon & enjoy!
Flavor Insights
‘Tis the season for unpredictable family parties, busy end-of-year workdays, and colder weather: the perfect storm to have us craving our old favorite comfort foods. In an otherwise complicated, stressful world, nostalgic flavors have a way of taking us back to positive emotions2. A recent report from Mintel found that 76% of Americans between the ages of 22 and 55 enjoy foods more that remind them of past memories1. As a response, more new products are beginning to feature some of the long-established flavors we all know and love.
Elevated Old
With the increasing popularity of nostalgic flavors, several companies within the food industry have taken inspiration from this trend for their premium products. Going into 2024- the age of opinionated social media influencers- elevating retro flavors is more important than ever to stand out in an over-saturated market.
Elevating nostalgic flavors by incorporating them into a decadent dessert, premium ice cream, or high-end appetizer can bring a playful, light-hearted tone to any event (or any cozy winter night on the couch). Not only can elevated old flavors enhance a feeling of connection and well-being, but they can also offer an exciting new way to enjoy flavors from the past! Ideas for your brand can include:
- Orange creamsicle flavored torte
- Frosted flakes flavored gelato
- Gingersnap flavored cold brew oat milk latte
- Butterscotch flavored macaroons
- Root Beer flavored probiotic soda
Novel Nostalgia
Beyond simply throwing classic flavors into sophisticated foods, re-introducing nostalgic products in a fun & innovative way is becoming just as trendy. As GenZ begins to start participating in the product market, it’s important to recognize that they may not have experienced the beloved food products from the 90’s firsthand. By incorporating the flavors from these old food products into novel items, companies have the opportunity to reach both older and younger consumers.
For example, Dunkaroos- which were discontinued in 2012- came back to the market with new innovations in 2020 & proved to be a hit. Yoplait is another brand that has used the concept of “Novel Nostalgia” successfully by launching a 90’s themed line of low-fat yogurt inspired by Skittles, Gushers, and Starburst flavors3. Re-inventing nostalgic flavors into novel products that invoke curiosity & capture attention may be a strategic approach for your brand:
- Cool ranch flavored lentil chips
- Peanut butter & jelly flavored sandwich cookies
- Apple cider flavored donuts
- Cotton candy flavored popcorn
- S’mores flavored coffee creamer
References
1.“Trending Flavors: Co-Branding and Collaborations in Desserts.” Mintel, 10 Jan. 2023, www.mintel.com/food-and-drink-market-news/trending-flavors-co-branding-and-collaborations-in-desserts-and-confections.
2. Vignolles, Alexandra, and Paul-Emmanuel Pichon. “A taste of nostalgia.” Qualitative Market Research: An International Journal, vol. 17, no. 3, 2014, pp. 225–238, https://doi.org/10.1108/qmr-06-2012-0027.
3.“Nostalgia in the Food & Beverage Space.” FONA, 2 May 2022, www.fona.com/articles/2021/11/nostalgia-in-the-food–beverage-space.
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